This year’s WWDC has become the first watershed moment for Apple and the eventual release of the iPhone 5, with the majority of the tech media assuming that it will come and go without the release of the iPhone 5. Conversely, Apple enthusiasts have hung their hopes on circumstantial evidence, such as Apple’s recent acquisition of the iPhone5.com domain, purported leaked parts, and an aggressive push to get the new Nano Sim standard passed — not to mention the rationale that Apple will look to restore its usual iPhone release to the WWDC this year.
The most recent rumors have broken in favor of the conservative fall iPhone 5 release.
A WSJ report from last week made a big splash by claiming that displays for the upcoming iPhone 5 — which purportedly measure somewhere in the 4-inch range — are set to begin production next month. Mind you: this rumor isn’t claiming that the iPhone 5 is going into production next month, but rather only the display components will begin to be produced. If we are to believe this rumor — which comes from one of the more respected and trusted tech sources on the internet today — then it means that the iPhone 5 is nowhere near being announced at the WWDC.
But the big “if” here is that you trust the WSJ report as accurate.
“Suppliers in the iPhone 5 supply chain in Taiwan have geared up production recently with volume shipments of the new Apple smartphones to begin soon. Production of iPhone 5s at OEM maker Foxconn Electronics has reportedly reached 150,000 units per day, according to industry sources . . . iPhone 5 shipments are said to be set to reach 5-6 million for the month of September and over 22 million for the fourth quarter of the year.“In 2011, Apple produced what turned out to be 5 to 6 million iPhone 4S units ahead of the announcement in October, and ostensibly produced another 5 to 6 million in October. We know that the first weekend of iPhone 4S orders totaled 4 million, so much of September, 2011′s stock was depleted in that first pre-order foray.
Imagining that an iPhone 5 announcement at the WWDC would most likely open up an immediate pre-order rush that could be up to double the numbers that we saw with the 4S, this would mean that Apple would need to have perhaps 15 to 20 million iPhone 5 units on hand by the first week of July — assuming that they would buffer the announcement and launch by 2 to 3 weeks. This would mean that Cupertino will have had to had production on the iPhone 5 going not only in June, but in this month as well. And to my knowledge, we have not had any production reports to date that mirror the above-mentioned one from last year.
Granted, we did have this report from early April, wherein a Foxconn hiring manager admitted that their influx of new employees was specifically for meeting a June iPhone 5 announcement. But that report was contradicted by another just a few days later. Considering that Foxconn purportedly spilled the beans about the iTV, it’s hard to tell fact from fiction from all these Foxconn rumors. However, if we take the first report at face value, then it isn’t hard to imagine that Foxconn hired on 20,000+ workers in April to begin work on the iPhone 5 in May — why would they hire workers in April for a major production push to begin in June? As a rule, the Chinese never waste resources like that.
And yet, analysts like “Dr. iPhone 5,” don’t appear to see evidence of wide-range production.
The answer to this mystery is all about the production: is the iPhone 5 currently in production or not? If it is, then its announcement could come in June. If not, then there’s no way that they could ever have enough units on hand for its launch sometime in early July.
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