“Evidence” For And Against A June iPhone 5 Announcement

As the WWDC fast approaches, tensions are on the rise regarding the release of the iPhone 5, and whether it has any chance for seeing a June announcement. The preponderance of opinion in the tech media is that there is no way the iPhone 5 could be announced at the WWDC, opting instead of a release window between September and October. Even our own columnist Charles Moore is betting safe money on a fall release.
Many iPhone enthusiasts, however, are more optimistic of a “one more thing” iPhone 5 moment at this year’s WWDC — and they feel that there is enough fodder in the iPhone 5 rumor mill to substantiate their optimism. Because the iPhone 5 is set to be such a landmark release for Apple, with many smartphone users having anticipated its release since as far back as the late summer of 2010, just on the heels of the iPhone 4 launch, the forums and comments are getting a bit barbed. All in good fun, of course.
I thought that maybe I could build some consensus between the yea and naysayers by looking back over the past few months for the “evidence” that supports a June versus fall iPhone 5 announcement. I use quotation marks on “evidence” because I’m using that term loosely; there is no hard core evidence to support either side. If there was, we wouldn’t be having the debate in the first place. That being said this is the closest thing we have to evidence for both sides of the issue. Which set of rumors do you think are the most telling and compelling?

Evidence For a June iPhone 5 Announcement:

1. My “Unnamed Asian Source” Called It In November, 2011: You can choose to believe my famed “unnamed Asian source” or not, but he did call the iPhone 4S right way back in July. As the CEO of a consumer electronics accessories company, he has a lot of skin the game when it comes to making predictions like this, since he decides which tack his company will take as a result of it. His own sources told him early on that the 2011 iPhone would be not an overhauled iPhone 5, but rather a refreshed iPhone 4, and he was right. Whether he will go 2 for 2 with his June iPhone 5 prediction remains to be seen. But he did call it.
2. Another “Unnamed Source” Claims “Something Big” Is Coming: Yeah, yeah — yuk it up over me with my “unnamed sources.” But this one confirmed their identity and offered vague yet albeit interesting testimony that “something big is coming,” and it’s coming soon. What is that “something,” and what is “soon?” Right — good questions. But if I had to assign a date to “soon” based on what I heard, I would say that the WWDC would be the most obvious timeframe. As for the “something,” the source seemed to believe that it would be more than just MacBooks — and that the Mini iPad wasn’t a possibility. More recent rumors suggest that the iTV could also be out of the realm of possibility. So, what’s left? The iPhone 5. Personally, I believe this rumor to quite salient.
3. Apple Is Pushing the “Nano Sim” Standard at the ETSI: A sub-plot to the iPhone 5 story has been this quirky “nano sim” standard battle. Apple sprung the new standard back in March and threw their competitors for a loop. They in turn stepped in to slow the process down, since adopting the new standard would force them to retool their 2012 designs. Most recently, Apple has moved to get approval of the Nano sim fast-tracked by offering its use royalty-free, an eyebrow-raising move, particularly considering how nasty the patent wars have gotten in the past years. The calculus here could be that Apple is in desperation mode to get the Nano sim passed so that it can be deployed in a June-released iPhone 5.
4. Home Button, Earpiece, and Sim Tray Leaks: iPhone 5 component pr0n was a dime a dozen last year. Heck, we even had glimpses of iPhone 5 cases without the iPhone 5. I think we’ve decided that doctoring iPhone parts to look slightly modified is easy enough for attention-starved tech blogs to pull off. But it’s also a lot easier to snuggle a few home buttons out of Foxconn than a completed iPhone 5. Some feel as though component leaks like these constitutes “where there’s smoke, there’s fire”-type evidence that an iPhone 5 release is imminent.
5. Apple Acquires the iPhone5.com domain — Early: It isn’t unusual for Apple to go after and get branded domains like iPhone4S.com, and link them to their existing iPhone category page at apple.com. However, is it unprecedented for Apple to aggressively push for the iPhone 5 domain before the iPhone 5 even exists! The vibe of this move is similar to that of the aggressive Nano sim standard push.
6. iPhone 4S Sales Are Down, iPhone 4, 4S Going On Sale: This is a sort of middle-of-the-road type rumor, since some would say that this kind of discounting is what comes just before the announcement of a new product, whereas others would suggest that it is merely cause and effect: people are buying less iPhone 4s and 4Ss, and so retailers are discounting them to move. While both points are valid, it is worth noting that the iPhone 4 and iPad 2 went on sale by retailers just prior to their new respective product announcements.

Evidence For a Fall iPhone 5 Announcement:

1. No (Production) News Is Bad News: Exhibit #1 for those who believe that the iPhone 5 won’t be announced until the fall is that we haven’t had any hard core evidence that Foxconn is churning out iPhone 5 units. By the time August rolled around, Foxconn was said to be producing 150,000 iPhones a day. Even though we heard of that rumor last month about Foxconn adding on 20,000 workers for the iPhone 5, voices out of Asia have been silent on iPhone 5 production. In fact, the closest thing we’ve come to hearing about the iPhone 5 production came from the WSJ about its display, which is said to only begin mass production in June, which also matches this earlier report as well.
2. iOS 6 Isn’t ready: Apple purists will point out that the iPhone is the flagship device for launching out new versions of iOS and, just like last year, we’ll only have a beta version of iOS 6 by the time the WWDC rolls around. The notion that the iPhone 5 could simply be released in June with iOS 5.2 has fallen on deaf ears with the fall-release crowd: how iOS 6 goes, so goes the iPhone 5 as well.
3. Apple Wouldn’t Release A New iPhone Less Than a Year After the 4S: Along the same lines as the iOS 6 rationale, Apple has never released a new iPhone iteration less than a year after the previous one. Granted, we witnessed them release a new version longer than the 12-month window, but the belief here is that, from both a contract and sales standpoint, Apple wouldn’t want to ruffle feathers and potentially cut into current sales by prematurely releasing the iPhone 5.
4. The Fall-Release Theorem Has Its Own “Unnamed Sources,” Too: The unnamed sources have chimed in on the Fall released iPhone 5 as well. Digitimes has posted several stories on unnamed Asian sources — ostensibly from components partners — who are pointing to a Fall release. It’s also fair to mention here that predictions from some of the financial analysts, such as “Dr. iPhone 5″ himself, Peter Misek, are pinging their contacts in Asia and hearing “Fall” instead of “Summer.”
5. New Carriers For the iPhone 4S: Charles pointed to several new reports that Apple is now beginning to work with smaller carriers in selling the iPhone 4S. The thinking here is that, if Apple is giving these new carriers the 4S now, it would make little sense to trump their new acquisition of the world’s most popular iPhone with a new iPhone 5 in June. In essence, it’s the same argument that we made last year with respect to Verizon: that Apple gave them ample time to seel the iPhone 4 before releasing the 4S, which may have contributed to its later-than-usual release.
As you can see, when you add up the rumors on both sides, there is plenty of fodder for supporting claims of a June or Fall release for the iPhone 5. Only time — and the passing of the WWDC — will confirm who is right in the end.